Calculated Compassion
The Play
Traditionally, strong welfare systems were associated with more democratic societies. Today, however, some elected authoritarians use welfare policies not just to provide support, but to consolidate power. These programs serve as tools to reinforce public loyalty and as a key pillar of their syncretic populism strategy.
In many cases, when confronted with popular demands, new authoritarian obsessively emphasize economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. Focusing on these issues strengthens their connection with the people and reinforces the perception that they deliver results. Moreover, these welfare programs are often framed as personal gifts from the leader, strengthening the bond between the leader and the voters.
Whether authoritarians genuinely improve people's lives is relative and depends on the context. Often, these measures amount to little more than handouts, yet they are consistently framed as monumental achievements—positioning these leaders as the ultimate champions of the people's will.
What does it look like?
1. Speaking to popular demands
Elected authoritarians use flagship schemes to mark their initiation in power, often introducing new and flashy schemes accompanied by much fanfare. These often relate to key societal concerns and aspirations, and by addressing a genuine demand shared by the people, authoritarians can use their new schemes to bolster their claims of being heralds of a new wave of popular change.
2. Removal of institutional checks and balances
A key strategy authoritarians use to expand their capability of delivering on social welfare includes removing sources of opposition and undermining institutions that serve as a check and balance or bypassing accountability bodies like parliamentary committees. Usually, they introduce new laws designed to strengthen their capability of rolling out such projects and clamping down on anybody who can serve as a 'veto player' to their ambitions.
3. Top-down decision making
The approach to social welfare involves a top-down process, with powers being increasingly centralized in the hands of authoritarians. In federalistic arrangements, attempts are often made to either curtail the ability of individual states to roll out similar schemes or otherwise are attacked by the authoritarian for being flimsy or populist without really understanding the people's needs and aspirations.
4. Alignment with the electoral cycle
Critical welfare scheme rollouts and announcements are often timed to coincide with electoral cycles to maximize public support. These schemes address issues and topics that are personal concerns for the majority: pensions increase, cash transfers, or day-to-day sustenance like food rations. By targeting these critical areas, authoritarians can emotionally appeal to a broad spectrum of voters and sway support across different groups.
5. Clientelism
Authoritarians also selectively or disproportionately use social policy to favor one group over another. Clientelistic practices are often adopted, as social benefits and welfare policies are used for patronage and political favoritism.
6. Propaganda
Authoritarian welfare policies are aggressively marketed both online and offline. These campaigns frame them not as government programs, but as personal initiatives of the leader. Welfare is portrayed as a gift from the leader rather than a public right. The messaging is filled with grand promises of a glorious future where the people's interests are safeguarded. It blends nationalistic pride with a paternalistic narrative, casting the authoritarian as the nation's savior and provider.
Who's done it?
Poland: Law and Justice Party (PiS)
Expanding Voter Base through Social Welfare
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS, Law and Justice Party) consolidated their popular support by rolling out new social welfare measures that addressed popular demands and aspirations. While, at a narrative level, they convinced voters that they were the only political party that took welfare seriously; their policy measures, such as reversing unpopular pension policies and lowering the retirement age, reinforced this perception. Also, they increased the minimum wage and provided monetary support for families with children, expanding access to daycare facilities. PiS enhanced spending on social welfare and catered to popular demands for improved living standards and economic security, thereby solidifying its control and broadening its voter base, particularly among rural voters.
"The government's social policy has completely changed people's lives. Our great commitment is not only to maintain social programs, but to develop them even further". Mateusz Morawiecki
Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Selective Distribution of Islamist Welfarism
Erdoğan implemented an Islamist welfarism model, blending religious and family values with populist welfare to expand support and foster clientelism. A key initiative, the 2003 Health Transformation Program, provided universal health coverage by expanding free healthcare for low-income citizens and consolidating insurance into the Social Security Institution. His government also doubled pensions for the elderly and disabled. Ahead of the 2023 elections, Erdoğan lowered the retirement age to 40, adding 2 million beneficiaries and boosting his support.
These measures fuel concerns about clientelism. Welfare is openly framed as a personal gift from Erdoğan—beneficiaries even receive text messages "from Erdoğan." Additionally, aid is disproportionately allocated to ruling-party municipalities, reinforcing the perception that aligning with Erdoğan ensures access to benefits.
"We are making preparations for the new period and striving to ready our country in a very different way for the new period... Be aware that today is better than yesterday, and tomorrow will be better than today. Let you have no doubt."
India: Narendra Modi
National Propaganda to Promote a "New India"
Under Prime Minister Modi, a new brand of social welfare has expanded government services into areas previously considered private. Flagship schemes like Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (toilet creation), Jan Dhan Yojana (zero balance bank accounts), Ayushman Bharat (health insurance), and Ujjawala Yojana (clean cooking fuel) have bolstered the Modi government's popularity and electoral success.
Modi's real achievement goes beyond policy—it lies in shaping public perception. The official BJP party has successfully framed these programs as Modi's personal gifts rather than government initiatives, portraying him as the direct benefactor of the underprivileged. Ahead of the 2024 election, they launched Viksit Bharat Sankalp, a mass awareness campaign branding these schemes as Modi's guarantees. By controlling the narrative, they have ensured that his image, not just his policies, remains central to India's development story.
The impact of Modi's social welfare programs:
- Zero-interest bank accounts: 450 million
- Households gaining access to cooking fuel: 103 million
- Beneficiaries of free food grains: 813 million
- Low-cost affordable housing units provided: 25 million
- Farmers receiving annual transfers of ₹6,000 ($70 USD): 110 million
What can democrats learn?
1. Welfare as a Tool of Empowerment, Not Patronage
While authoritarians often use welfare as a means of control and patronage, democrats should approach social policies as tools for empowerment. Welfare should not be about creating dependency, but about fostering independence, dignity, and opportunity. Thus, democrats can build a strong, sustainable support base rooted in genuine progress and social equity.
2. Emotional Dynamics in Policy Developments
The authoritarian approach to welfare is often used as a platform through which they respond to the people's underlying emotional and aspirational needs. Democratic forces should recognize and address these emotional dynamics by framing their policies not just as practical solutions, but as pathways to fulfilling people's aspirations and hopes for the future.
3. Reclaim History
From a narrative perspective, authoritarians use revisionist rhetoric to cement their position as leaders, ushering in a glorious era while undermining previous administrations' efforts to address the people's needs. To counter this stance, democrats should (re)build their own historical narrative, reinterpreting democratic traditions in ways that resonate with today's majority, connecting past democratic successes and values to the current aspirations of the people.
4. Decent Lives Matter Most
Narratives alone are insufficient to win the public over; people need tangible improvements in their daily lives. Effective welfare policies must address basic human needs for survival and a decent standard of living. By prioritizing policies that improve living standards and that are valued and appreciated by the people, democrats can foster inclusive communities and create a compelling vision of a society where everyone has the opportunity to thrive. This not only strengthens the social fabric but also counters authoritarian narratives that offer superficial or reckless solutions.
Learn more
D-Hub Resources
- D-Hub. 2024. "Learning from Authoritarians." Working Papers #1.
Other Resources
- European Centre for Populism Studies. 2024. "Erdogan's winning authoritarian populist formula and Turkey's future.".
- Financial Times. 2023. "The patronage network behind Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's bid for third decade in power."
- Milan Vaishnav. 2023. "Decoding India's 2024 Election Contest." Carnegie India.
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